I agree with the comments by Phil Dobbie. Unemployment amongst the under 21year olds in big areas of major cities is around 40%. Successive Federal governments have helped the industies that once existed to provide employment for these people move to China and India. The remaining value added industries are all bleeding to death at a slow rate as the politicians in current government assists its friends in China transform Australia into a nation of part-time serfs. Removal of all tariffs and open markets seal the fate of real full-time growth outside the mining industry. Even the miners are facing problems as their employers start automating the mine and transport train infrastructure.
We cannot compete against nations who pay their workers $1 per day or less.
Our future lies in innovation and home grown support of local production. This requires the kind of stomach that current politicians no longer possess.
False Optimism on Jobs
By Phil Dobbie | April 11, 2010
Aussie Rules
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On the face of it, last week’s Labour Force statistics from the ABS showed good news. March saw a two percent rise (seasonally adjusted) in employed persons and a 4.7 percent drop in the unemployed. But beneath the surface lurks a different picture.
The total employed figure includes a higher proportion of part-time workers than ever before. Ten years ago 21 percent of all employed people worked part time, many as a lifestyle choice. In March it was 30 percent and the sharp rise last year indicates it was more out of necessity. In other words, more people were settling for part-time work because they couldn’t get a full-time gig.
The trend is more pronounced for women in the workforce, with the proportion of part-time workers going from 23 percent to 46 percent over the last decade. Again the last year has seen the sharpest rise.
This graph shows how the number of people unemployed is returning back quickly to where it was in January 2007, while the number of full time employed hasn’t really moved from where it was three years ago, despite population growth. The significant trend is the number employed part time, which has increased by about 10 percent.
More people are working, but many are working less
There’s another disturbing trend. Over the last couple of years those part-timers have worked less and less as each month goes by. During the GFC full-time workers were also putting in less time, but now that the economy is starting to grow again they’re heading back in the right direction (although their hours are still a lot less than before). But the slide in hours worked by those in part-time employment continues unabated. So we’re seeing more people moving to part-time work, getting paid for less hours, and it’s getting worse by the month.
Doesn’t this strike a cautionary note? As always, it pays to be wary of top-level statistics. They can hide the true state of the economy. We’re already seeing media reports of people scraping to meet the increased cost of power bills. To me these figures point to a growth in the working poor, which raises the question as to whether further interest rate rises will hit spending patterns harder than the Reserve Bank envisaged.
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Talkback 9 Talkbacks
RE: False Optimism on Jobs
Decimus
04/12/2010 06:37 PM
BNET Blogger
RE: False Optimism on Jobs
This is an interesting trend and good to see the underlying
factors. Has anyone out there had personal experience of this?
Is this hitting particular industries more or is it across the
board? Having seen empty shops in Sydney with massive sales
on I am guessing the spending has already been impacted?
factors. Has anyone out there had personal experience of this?
Is this hitting particular industries more or is it across the
board? Having seen empty shops in Sydney with massive sales
on I am guessing the spending has already been impacted?
GeorgieTaylor
04/12/2010 06:40 PM
RE: False Optimism on Jobs
The ABS figures are inaccurate and based on a sampling. What I would like to know is why doesnt the ABS and government use superannuation figures?? When I was made redundant (13months ago - and I dont appear in any statistics as I havent registered anywhere) I got a letter from my ex-exployer that they were writing to my super to advise them no more payments. So given super is compulsory here in Hostralia and it seems when payments stop employers are quick to let the fund know to stop expecting money why dont the Canberra boffins count the number of letters saying no more money coming, and count the number of letters saying activate this new fund or re-activate this existing fund to get monies from us to ACCURATELY count employed and unemployed???
Thanks
Earl
Thanks
Earl
Earlwag
04/12/2010 07:13 PM
RE: False Optimism on Jobs
this article is doubly interesting, about the underlying sales figures for small business buried in the total retail trade figures
http://www.theage.com.au/small-business/time-travelling-for-household-goods-is-a-bad-ride-20100406-rphm.html
http://www.theage.com.au/small-business/time-travelling-for-household-goods-is-a-bad-ride-20100406-rphm.html
timrichardson
04/12/2010 08:08 PM
BNET Blogger
RE: False Optimism on Jobs
Earl, interesting point on the ABS data, super would make more
sense to monitor this... I wonder if there are privacy issues
getting access to the super info though?
Tim - interesting about the retail figures...not a fun time to be a
small retailer I am guessing
sense to monitor this... I wonder if there are privacy issues
getting access to the super info though?
Tim - interesting about the retail figures...not a fun time to be a
small retailer I am guessing
GeorgieTaylor
04/13/2010 12:21 AM
RE: False Optimism on Jobs
Georgie,
Greetings. Thanks for the comment. If the tax dept can get data including names, addresses etc on all those mistakenly (and some honestly) over contributing to super then surely a super fund saying contributions to 8000 funds stopped this month due to loss of jobs while 3500 new/re-activated funds occurred and we get a real picture of the mess that is being hidden with survey estimates then this would be a good thang. - what price privacy to ensure people are well informed. Cheers
Greetings. Thanks for the comment. If the tax dept can get data including names, addresses etc on all those mistakenly (and some honestly) over contributing to super then surely a super fund saying contributions to 8000 funds stopped this month due to loss of jobs while 3500 new/re-activated funds occurred and we get a real picture of the mess that is being hidden with survey estimates then this would be a good thang. - what price privacy to ensure people are well informed. Cheers
Earlwag
04/13/2010 07:04 AM
Not working doesn't equal unemployment
Earl,
It's an idea and a way to get 100% data to tell us how many
people are in jobs. It ignores people who might be working for
themselves or working part time and not paying super - but
that would be an interesting statistic in itself. It also doesn't
help split part time and full time figures and, of course, it
can't be used to work out an unemployment rate because we
don't know how many people don't want a new job (for
example, gone to college, had babies, left the country, died
etc). But as data to use alongside a survey, yes, great idea!
It's an idea and a way to get 100% data to tell us how many
people are in jobs. It ignores people who might be working for
themselves or working part time and not paying super - but
that would be an interesting statistic in itself. It also doesn't
help split part time and full time figures and, of course, it
can't be used to work out an unemployment rate because we
don't know how many people don't want a new job (for
example, gone to college, had babies, left the country, died
etc). But as data to use alongside a survey, yes, great idea!
phildobbie
04/13/2010 12:43 PM
RE: False Optimism on Jobs
Thanks Phil. Agreed there may be some cracks but still better than an extrapolated survey - which actually was changed last year and made it potentially more inaccurate (since been changed back and we are only now getting figures the way the used to be worked out). Im not sure that it wont pick up a percentage of part timers given that earning >$450 a month means the employer contribution has to be paid, I believe, whether you are part time or even casual (please correct me if Im wrong). Anyway at least we would have a solid basis to build on. Cheers
Earlwag
04/13/2010 04:04 PM
RE: False Optimism on Jobs
Great identification of this trend. There is another trend of people striving toward more meaning in their work which often manifests in wanting to work less hours (assuming they can afford it). Some firms who cut hours in the GFC to, say, 4 days are struggling to get some people to go back to full time.So a paradox: those that want to work more, can't, and those that can work more, won't.
edwintr
04/18/2010 09:38 PM
